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MOST RECENT BLOG POSTS:


Bulls Have Room to Run
Having turned negative on stocks on April 21, I warned last week that our models were close to turning positive again. What I didn’t realize at the time was that it was going to happen just a few hours later and confirmed on Monday. If you recall, I wasn’t expecting anything major on the downside, […]

Bears Still in Control but Bulls Getting Closer
As you know from the suddenly negative piece below, I temporarily abandoned my bullish stance on April 21. At that time, we significantly raised cash, hedged and/or purchased securities that don’t perform with the stock market. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20160501.pdf At that time and every week since on www.investfortomorrowblog.com, I did not believe that stocks were on the […]

Plodding through the Pullback
Not much has changed this week. As has been the case since April 21, I am still looking for lower prices, but nothing dramatic. The selling has been orderly and constructive. The NYSE advance/decline remains very strong and healthy, not what you typically see during bear markets or large declines. High yield (junk) bonds, which […]

“Bounce” Teetering
The “bounce” I mentioned here remains alive although it is living on borrowed time. I continue to believe the ultimate low remains in front of us. Retail and consumer discretionary stocks have been the latest to take it on the chin with a slew of poor earnings from Macy’s Nordstroms, etc. This sector is one […]

Here Comes the Bounce
The major stock market indices staged an impressive comeback on Friday as they all reversed early losses to close nicely higher. Given the very orderly pullback along with some modest losses of roughly 3% except in the NASDAQ, the odds now favor the bulls stepping up right here for at least a short-term bounce. Should […]

Bears Knocking on Door Again
The major stock market indices are under pressure for the second day in a row, potentially threatening to close below last Friday’s low which is a line in the sand I spoke about on Monday. We will see what happens after 4pm. The selling continues to look orderly and there is not much internal damage […]

Bulls then Bears and Finally Bulls
The stock market had a nice little reversal on Friday as the bulls fended off morning weakness to close well off the lows. While I remain in the pullback camp and see lower prices ahead, the bulls should have enough ammunition to mount a small rally here. If Friday’s lows are closed below anytime this […]

Apple’s Collapse as the Market Bears Reign
Just over a week ago and one day after most of the major market indices peaked, I posted a piece entitled Reigning in Bullishness where for the first time since the rally began in February, I tempered my enthusiasm. I couched my negative comments with more sanguine words that I absolutely do not believe the […]

The “Secret” Reason Yellen Doesn’t Want to Raise Rates. Special Fed Meeting Update
I believe there is a “secret” behind the Fed being slow to hike short-term interest rates. I will get to that in a minute. Today’s Meeting Let’s start with non-controversial items first. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes their two day meeting with an announcement at 2 pm that interest rates will not change […]

Apple & The Fed. A Volatile Concoction…
The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled two-day meeting today. Typically, stocks are quiet with a small upward bias. However, Apple reports earnings after the bell and that almost always provides some movement as the tech behemoth has an outsized weighting in the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ 100. I have absolutely no opinion on how […]


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