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MOST RECENT BLOG POSTS:


Post-FOMC Sell Continues as Does Pullback Mode
Our post-FOMC sell signal from Thursday’s close remains in place. That short-term trade will end this week. Stocks begin the week on the defensive as Europe and Asia are showing red. The media will likely blame it on pre-debate jitters, but that’s just nonsense. Pullback mode remains in place as it has been for the […]

Fed Trend Says Sell but Fedex Gives Thumbs Up
After Thursday’s strength, one of our post-FOMC trading systems gave a sell signal and that calls for weakness over the next 3-5 days. This has a high degree of accuracy, greater than 75%. If stocks rally further on Friday, it will trigger another trend calling for lower prices with a hit rate above 85%. If […]

I Screwed Up
Yesterday, I said that all of our Fed related trends were muted to less than 60% accuracy. That was wrong. One of our best Fed systems said there was a 78% likelihood that stocks rallied. I didn’t realize this until well after 2pm when it was too late to email and take advantage. What a […]

Yellen Set to Raise Rates, But…
As the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting heads into day two, our own trends and systems for the trading day are surprisingly mute. Today typically sees stocks trade in a +.50% to -.50% band until 2 pm before the market gets a shot of volatility. Usually, we see a strong upside bias into the close, […]

Bulls Continue to Ready Their Arsenal
The major indices begin the week without being on the same page as the multi-week pullback theme remains in place. This is very typical of a market that is digesting gains. Below is the S&P 500 where you can see the big red and green bars on the right side. Those were huge spikes in […]

Volatility Remains Elevated Until the Bulls are Ready Again
While stocks didn’t much on the surface on Wednesday, it was definitely disappointing for the bulls that there hasn’t been any follow through from Monday’s big reversal. The bulls should make another attempt on Thursday. The pullback theme remains intact, but we are starting to see some more encouraging readings in the sentiment area, specifically […]

Questioning Brainard’s Ethics Again
What a show of strength by the bulls on Monday. After what looked like a continuation of Friday’s bloodbath, the bears folded like a cheap suit shortly after the open. Credit is being giving to Fed head, Lael Brainard, who gave a very dovish (against raising rates) speech, but the truth is that stocks were […]

Not the Fetal Position
Last week, my theme focused on a pullback in the stock market. More importantly, my strong opinion was that it wasn’t a bout of weakness where people should sell in to, but rather to use that opportunity to buy the dip or re-position a portfolio to where it should be over where it was. Friday […]

Pullback Remains But Transports…
The Dow and S&P 500 are still lagging the other major stock market indices in pullback mode, but contrary to what you may think, this remains a very healthy environment for stocks. In the strongest markets, the more “risk on” indices are the ones charging ahead. That’s the case now with the S&P 400, Russell […]

Still in a Pullback
Over the past few trading days, stocks gathered a little steam, but I still think the markets are in the midst of yet another pause or tiny pullback. It is amazing, however, that we have not seen a 1% in either direction since the post-BREXIT rally in early July. I have been saying nonstop that […]


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